Last Thursday, the 12th of March 2009, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released projected emissions of Ireland’s greenhouse gases up to 2020, as mandated under the National Climate Change Strategy. These projections update those published in September 2008. They give a picture of Ireland’s ability to meet international targets with respect to greenhouse gas emissions, if current and planned policies and programmes are implemented, taking into account the slow-down in the economy.
The EPA projections reflect the reduced activity due to the economic downturn, but even with this, and with all plans and measures implemented on time and delivering to their fullest extent, there is still an ongoing challenge for Ireland to meet its obligations under both the Kyoto Protocol and under the EU 2020 binding targets. The projections are reported on a sectoral basis and highlight, once again, that the key sectors contributing to greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland are agriculture, energy and transport.
Greenhouse gas emission projections have been produced by the EPA, for both the Kyoto period and up to 2020, under two different policy scenarios, which indicate the potential outlook for greenhouse gas emissions. The two scenarios are:
- a with measures scenario which is based on existing and currently implemented policies and measures, and
- a with additional measures scenario which adjusts the with measures scenario to account for all existing and currently planned policies and measures. Planned policies and measures include the renewable energy targets and energy efficiency targets as set out in the Energy White Paper and the revised Energy Efficiency Action Plan
Both scenarios are based on SEI’s energy forecasts published in December 2008 and, in addition, consideration is taken of the most recent macro economic assumptions from the ESRI’s Economic Shock analysis which assumes that GNP will contract by 7% between 2007 and 2010. Agricultural emissions projections are based on data recently received from Teagasc and take into account the gradual removal of milk quota under reform of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP).
Ireland is currently faced with meeting two targets with respect to greenhouse gas emissions. The first of these is the Kyoto Protocol to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) which limits Ireland’s total national emissions to an average of 62.8 Mtonnes of CO2e per annum in the period 2008 – 2012. This is 13 per cent above the baseline estimate.
The Kyoto Protocol is, however, only a first step in addressing the serious global threat of climate change. The ultimate goal of the UNFCCC is to stabilise atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases at a level that prevents dangerous human interference with the climate system. Therefore, in January 2008 the EU Commission put forward a package of proposals that will deliver on the European Union’s commitments to fight climate change and promote renewable energy up to 2020 and beyond. The package seeks to deliver a 20% reduction in total EU greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (relative to 1990 levels) and at the same time to increase to 20% the share of renewable energies in energy consumption. This package was agreed, with some amendments, by the EU Parliament and Council in December 2008. The emissions reduction will be increased to 30% by 2020 when a new global climate change agreement is reached. Commenting on the projections Dr Mary Kelly, Director General, EPA said,
A 20 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the non-trading sector is going to be very difficult to achieve without radical change. The non-trading sector consists of agriculture, transport, residential and other sectors, but excludes the energy and large industrial sectors -which are being dealt with under the cap and trade system of the Emissions Trading Directive
She continued:
The profile of greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland is unusual in the European context, with agriculture currently accounting for 27 per cent of all emissions and 40 per cent of emissions in the non-trading sector. This makes it very difficult to effect actual reductions on the scale required in the non-trading sector.
The diagram below (taken form the EPA report) shows the projected contributions from each of the sectors to total national emissions for the With Measures and With Additional Measures scenario averaged over the 2008 – 2012 period. Agriculture and transport sector emissions account for around 50% of emissions under both scenarios.
The second diagram (also taken from the EPA report) shows the projected contributions from each of the non-ETS sectors to total non-ETS sectors emissions in 2020. Under the two emissions projections, agriculture and transport sector emissions account for around 70% of total non-ETS emissions.
With regard to the projections for agriculture, the report states:
- There is only one scenario for agricultural emission projections. Emissions are projected to decrease by 4% over the period 2007 – 2020 to 17.8 Mtonnes of CO2e. The agricultural emissions projections presented here are 10% lower in 2020 compared to those published by the EPA in 2008
- Agricultural emissions projections are based on forecast animal numbers produced by Teagasc in November 2008. These forecasts take account of the most recent developments (as of November 2008) in relation to removal of milk quota. The agreed increase in Irish milk quota between now and the quota removal date in 2015 will be slightly over 5%. The EPA’s agricultural projections, published in 2008, were predicated on higher dairy cow numbers as it was assumed at that time that the increase in Irish milk quota would be significantly greater than 5%.
Rural Development Programme 2007-2013
While carbon sinks will be created primarily by Ireland’s afforestation measures, which are not included in this Programme, these will be complemented significantly by support through REPS (under Axis 2: Improving the environment and the countryside) for the creation and maintenance of hedgerows: the programme includes targets for the establishment of 4,800 kilometres of new hedgerows and the rejuvenation of a further 3,200 kilometres. The nutrient management measure, which is one of the eleven core undertakings in REPS, will deliver field-by-field nutrient management planning based on soil tests and the level of farming activity, maximising efficiency in fertiliser use and consequently minimising emissions from that source. Further reductions in emissions will be delivered by the promotion through REPS of minimum tillage and of clover pastures, which reduce the need for nitrogenous fertiliser.
Actions under Axis 3 (Quality of life in rural areas and diversification of the rural economy) aimed at stimulating adoption of new renewable energy technologies at community level, coupled with initiatives to promote public awareness of the benefit of such technologies will directly contribute to achieving the goals of the National Climate Change Strategy (NCCS) 2000. These initiatives will be reflected in the review of the NCCS currently underway.
The Moderniastion of Agricultural Holdings (On-Farm Investment) measure under Axis 1 (Improving the competitiveness of the agricultural sector) has as an objective higher environmental standards on Irish farms and a reduction in overall greenhouse and transboundary gas emissions from the agriculture sector. This objective is supported, for example, through grant aid for manure processing facilities.
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Very interesting to see how the Rural Development Programme is seeking to support the reduction of greenhouse gases. I think, however, there is even more that could be done.
@Thomas, thank you for your comment. In addition to the references above you might also be interested in the Community Climate Change Consortium for Ireland (C4i) Project (http://www.c4i.ie) which was established in 2003. Its main objective is to consolidate and intensify the national effort in climate change research by building a capability for carrying out regional climate modelling in Ireland and to provide assistance to Irish scientists utilising climate model output for their analyses.
John Thanks for the update, have you any further information about how the CAP health check is going to address the issue of climate change?
@Pat, thanks for your comment. In January of this year the EU council issued a decision amending the strategic guidelines for rural development in order to address the issues of climate change, renewable energy, biodiversity, water management and dairy restructuring in line with the recommendations from the Health check. Each of the Member States have been requested to revise their national programmes with an emphasis on promoting innovation “..by developing new technologies, products and processes”. The Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food are in the process of drawing up these changes and have already consulted with key stakeholders in the Agriculture and Rural Development sector.